Em 2020, a Indústria legal de maconha vai desaguar no Mainstream

Opinião

hempadao 1 janeiro, 2020

A indústria da cannabis legal já é uma realidade. Até pouco mais de um ano atrás, o pequeno Uruguai deixou de ser uma exceção solitária destoando do mundo – o único país onde a produção e o uso adulto da maconha era permitido –, quando o Canadá, décima economia da Terra, legalizou. E o uso medicinal já é fato consumado na maior parte do mundo desenvolvido – incluindo 21 dos 28 países da União Europeia e 33 dos 50 estados americanos. Mas é em 2020 que a legalização da maconha vai desaguar no mainstream – e a indústria global vai ganhar escala.

por Denis Russo Burgierman,
na Época

Em 2020, espera-se que a diminuta lista de países que já legalizaram comece a crescer. A Nova Zelândia vai fazer um plebiscito para decidir o que fazer e algumas pesquisas apontam um apoio de 60% para a legalização. Luxemburgo já anunciou planos de regulamentar o mercado. No México, depois de decisões da Justiça a favor do direito constitucional de plantar e usar a planta, espera-se que a regulamentação venha logo. Decisões semelhantes na Justiça apontam também para a legalização em países como a Itália e a África do Sul.

Mas grande parte da mudança global este ano deve acontecer nos Estados Unidos, mais uma vez. O país mais poderoso do mundo já permite a 90% de sua população algum acesso à cannabis – ao menos medicinal – e onze estados já regulamentaram a venda a qualquer adulto com uma carteira de identidade ou de motorista, inclusive o mais populoso deles, a Califórnia, onde vive mais gente que no Canadá. Este mês, o Illinois deve se tornar o décimo-segundo. Como vem acontecendo a cada eleição americana, espera-se para novembro de 2020 mais uma leva de estados legalizando tanto o uso adulto quanto o medicinal.

Cigarro de maconha Foto: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images

Cigarro de maconha Foto: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images

Parece provável que esta leva seja a maior até hoje. Afinal, o apoio à regulamentação da cannabis nos Estados Unidos nunca foi tão alto: 90% dos americanos são a favor da legalização do uso medicinal, e dois terços da população apoiam a legalização do chamado uso recreativo. Mesmo entre os republicanos, que são a direita americana, o apoio já bateu em 55%. Com isso, há analistas prevendo que iniciativas pró-legalização propostas por cidadãos virem lei no Arizona, Missouri, na Flórida e nas Dakotas do Sul e do Norte. Além disso, cinco governos pró-legalização do nordeste do país – Nova York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Nova Jersey e Pensilvânia – estão juntos criando uma regulamentação unificada para legalizar a planta.

Mas não é só nos estados que a legalização pode começar a ocorrer em 2020 – este ano é possível que a legalização a nível federal comece a virar realidade. Afinal, é ano de eleição presidencial e a grande maioria dos candidatos é favorável à legalização federal, ao menos do uso medicinal (entre os favoritos, apenas Donald Trump, Joe Biden e Michael Bloomberg se opõem à medida).

Enfim, tudo indica que maconha legalizada vá deixar de ser uma exceção rara e torne-se algo comum em várias partes do mundo. Também parece provável que a indústria caminhe rumo ao mainstream, com o sistema bancário começando a perder o medo de lidar com ela – por anos, mesmo em estados americanos onde a maconha é legal, era bem difícil para um negócio do ramo abrir uma conta num banco. Em 2020, devem começar a surgir cadeias globais de valor, com volumes consideráveis de maconha e de seus componentes circulando no mercado internacional.

O Brasil vem bem atrás desses países que puxam o pelotão da legalização, mas também por aqui mudanças vão acontecer. Em março, as novas regras para a cannabis medicinal entram em vigor. E há otimismo quanto à possibilidade de o Congresso regulamentar o plantio de cannabis, para usos medicinal e industrial – com o apoio da bancada ruralista.

Será um ano de mudanças. E, ao final dele, quando começar 2021, a maconha legalizada será uma realidade no mainstream global.


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