A legalização da maconha no Brasil e a economia do sertão nordestino

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hempadao 22 outubro, 2016

Fonte: Brasil Post

Já defendi nesse espaço a legalização da maconha.

O argumento utilizado naquela ocasião era fundamentalmente filosófico, partindo do chamado princípio do dano, apresentado pelo pensador liberal John Stuart Mill.

Hoje eu volto a defender a legalização da maconha, mas dessa vez meu argumento é de ordem econômica.

O primeiro ponto é que a história mostrou – e tem mostrado – que os malefícios sociais do uso recreativo de drogas são menores que os custos sociais do proibicionismo.

A lei seca implementada nos EUA não tornou aquele país o paraíso calvinista sobre a terra, mas fortaleceu sobremaneira o crime organizado.

A política antidrogas americana também tem sua parcela de culpa na gestação do poder aterrador do narcotráfico no México.

No Brasil o resultado tem sido semelhante. Pense em quantos milhões de reais não foram gastos nos últimos dez anos, por exemplo, no combate e na repressão às drogas. E qual o efeito produzido?

As drogas continuam facilmente acessíveis em qualquer horário, em qualquer bairro de qualquer cidade do Brasil.

Na Rua Augusta em São Paulo, por exemplo, vende-se (ou vendia-se) cocaína todas as noites como em uma feira livre.

Tudo que a política antidrogas produziu, portanto, foi o poder paramilitar do PCC e do CV e a prisão em massa de pequenos traficantes.

(Quem transporta drogas em bicicletas barra forte está na mira da Justiça, ao passo que os que transportam em helicópteros, dormem o sono dos justos).

Praticamente todas as grandes organizações criminosas com poder para desafiar Estados nacionais, como o PCC, FARC e os cartéis do México, se financiam através do tráfico de drogas.

A legalização das drogas seria um golpe violento no fluxo de caixa dessas S/A’s da morte.

Com a legalização da maconha, por exemplo, virtualmente todo o dinheiro gasto na repressão à produção e ao consumo, poderia se direcionar para atividades de maior demanda social.

E mais, não só se reduziriam custos, como também se gerariam receitas.

O cigarro gerou uma arrecadação da ordem de R$ 8,5 bilhões em 2015 em impostos federais. O setor de bebidas alcóolicas gerou uma arrecadação de quase R$ 7 bilhões naquele mesmo ano.

Se supusermos que a maconha gere uma receita de impostos de R$ 2 bilhões – previsão bastante parcimoniosa – teríamos aí uma fonte não desprezível de receitas tributárias.

Outro ponto, a política contra o cigarro praticada no Brasil nas últimas duas décadas mostra que a regulação e a educação são as melhores formas de se reduzir o consumo.

Em 1989, quase 35% da população acima de 18 anos eram fumantes no Brasil, em 2003 esse número caiu par a 22,4%, e em 2013 para 14,7%.

É óbvio que não se pode atribuir essa queda apenas à política mais rigorosa implementada a partir de meado dos anos 1990. Mas também parece igualmente óbvio que parte dessa queda é sim devida às campanhas educativas e as restrições impostas pelo governo.

Algo similar poderia ser feito com a maconha. Restrição de consumo a determinados lugares, campanhas de conscientização sobre seus potenciais riscos, taxação elevada do produto, etc.

Mesmo o preço mais elevado da droga legalizada não levaria necessariamente ao tráfico. Basta pensar pela ótica do consumidor recreativo, o qual preferiria pagar mais caro por um produto de melhor qualidade e de procedência confiável, além de preferir ser atendido por um funcionário de uma loja de um shopping center a ter que negociar com criminosos em um local ermo.

O último argumento que quero levantar diz respeitos às potencialidades econômicas para o sertão nordestino com a legalização da maconha.

Uma das tragédias do sertão nordestino é a histórica inexistência de produção local de uma mercadoria de alta rentabilidade para a exportação ou para o atendimento do consumo de outras regiões do país.

O sertão que surge como fornecedor de carne e de animais de tração para o litoral do Nordeste, tem sua produção rapidamente deslocada – ainda no período colonial – pelo charque vindo do sul.

Esse um dos motivos da prostração econômica daquela região, salvo exceções como o emblemático caso de Petrolina/Juazeiro que desenvolveram uma fruticultura de exportação.

Já existe no sertão nordestino um polo produto, o chamado polígono da maconhaque abastece parte significativa do mercado brasileiro. Segundo estimativas de Paulo César Fraga – sociólogo professor da Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora – essa parcela seria de 40% do consumo total do país. Uma cifra extraordinária.

Legalizando-se a maconha e criando-se incentivos, essa região do semiárido brasileiro poderia se tornar um centro não só de cultivo de maconha, mas também de beneficiamento, de pesquisa genética, etc. Seria desenvolvida ali, finalmente, uma atividade econômica de alta rentabilidade. Os municípios pobres daquela região teriam uma fonte importante de receita tributária.

Isso geraria um efeito multiplicador sobre a economia local, estimulando o comércio, a construção civil, o setor de serviço, etc.

O traficante seria progressivamente substituído pelo empresário.

Esse argumento não é novo. Não só o professor Paulo César o defende em trabalhos recentes, mas também o professor da UFPE Gustavo Maia Gomes já tratou dessa questão há mais de quinze anos.

Ninguém é tolo de afirmar que a maconha transformará o sertão em Suíça, mas o exemplo da agricultura irrigada em Petrolina/Juazeiro dá uma dimensão das potencialidades econômicas da maconha para essa que é a região mais pobre do país.

O Nordeste tem uma renda per capita que é algo como a metade da renda do país. A região do semiárido tem renda per capita que é algo como a metade da renda nordestina. Ou seja, a renda per capita média do sertão equivale a aproximadamente ¼ da renda nacional.

Sufocar o plantio de maconha, uma das poucas atividades de alta rentabilidade nessa região, é um dano social muito maior do que aquele derivado de alguém fumar um cigarro de maconha na beira mar de Boa Viagem.



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